Recession 2016

Has it already begun?Early calls for the just completed fourth quarter of 2015 have been coming down from a pre-quarter consensus forecast of about 2.7% growth, to an estimate now under 1%. No one heavyweight is yet expecting a negative print for the quarter as a whole, but early indications are that we have had at least one or two ( Read more... )

Steve Liesman vs. Lakshman Achuthan on CNBCLakshman Achuthan appeared on CNBC yesterday morning to discuss ECRI's recession forecast they made back at the end of September. Despite some improvements in the coincident indicators and a run-up in stock prices, ECRI's forward-looking indicators are still anticipating a new recession, likely starting ( Read more... )

Markets & respected economists are now ratcheting up their concern that the US, if not  world economy, is falling into a new recession.

~Excerpts/Recommended Reading from August 2, 2011~

CNBC
Dow Logs 8-Day Loss, S&P Negative for Year

Stocks sold off sharply to end at session lows Tuesday with the Dow down for an eighth day amid economic worries and ( Read more... )

And what better word to describe the latest round of economic indicators than as a dumpah.

E-Forecasting's latest numbers crunching finds US GDP now contracting, Leading Indicators falling a very substantial 1.3% in June, and the risk of technical recession this year now up to 46%, and climbing.

With all the headwinds we are up against right now, ( Read more... )

Somehow I think that might best be appropriately followed up with a collective "Duh!" But you decide:

CNBC
August 06, 2010
CNBC - Early Friday morning, ECRI's Achuthan spoke with CNBC's Squawk Box about jobs, and the emerging economic slowdown that was predicted by ECRI six months ago.

A CNBC study that has been proving more accurate than most, finds that Americans on whole plan to spend better than 10% more this holiday season on gifts than last year. If verified, this bodes very well on fourth quarter GDP and future growth and future job creation. Unsurprisingly, all of this YoY gain is coming from a massive jump in spending ( Read more... )